The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is likely to retreat to the mountains to launch guerrilla warfare against Ethiopia military.
Tigray People’s Liberation Front has in its ranks veterans of guerrilla warfare that helped the outfit to seize power back in 1991. They later were put in charge of Ethiopia’s intelligence and military until 2018 when Dr. Abiy Ahmed took power.
Early this month, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front seized control of a military base near Mekele, the capital of Tigray. In the process they took away weaponry such as rockets and missiles.
Tigray People’s Liberation Front leaders indicated that they took control of the Northern Command because they felt the federal government was planning to attack them.
Dr. Abiy Ahmed Ali ordered attacks on Tigray People’s Liberation Front because according to him they “had crossed the red line”.
According to the Prime Minister, the Army is in the final phase of taking away Tigray from TPLF. Which may not be easy considering that the Tigray People’s Liberation Front leader, DebretsionGebremichael, said that “we are people of principle and ready to die in defence of our right to administer our region.”
Tigray People’s Liberation Front is reported to have an excess of 200,000 personnel from village militias and special forces while Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) has 140,000 personnel according to the estimates by the Janes Security Group.
There has been a lot of recruitment and training of personnel in the last two years because of the conflict between the federal and regional government.
The Ethiopian military has the option of strengthening their military numbers by seeking for reinforcement from other states. At the beginning of Federal operations in Tigray, federal government worked closely with the Amhara regional government forces to secure the territory in Western Tigray.
The two regions had a land dispute in the recent past. The reason why the federal government is keen on securing the Western region is because it is relatively flat therefore convenient for a conventional army according to Davison William of International Crisis Group.
The federal government was also keen to prevent the Tigray People’s Liberation Front from setting bases there as it did during the Mengistu Haile Mariam regime nearly 30 years ago.
Tigray People’s Liberation Front has only western part of Tigray to escape to Sudan if pushed too much. They can also get fresh war supplies from Sudan. Now things have changed, unlike in the past, TPLF does not have the access to the Red Sea through Eritrea as they did in the 1980s.
Eritrea’s president Isaias Afwerki is a great enemy of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front now according to BBC Tigrinya editor Samuel Ghebhrehiwet.
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