Thomas Robert Mathus who lived between 1766 to 1834 famously indicated that “global population would hit a point whereby the resources will become scarce and that they will be unable to sustainable the population at that time.” The date was given as 2050 when this will happen. At that time, the global population is projected to be 50 billion of us! This is the Malthusian theory of population.
Further, Mathus observed that, “if unchecked, population would grow exponentially while food supply will grow arithmetically.” However, he noted that this rapid population growth will be checked by diseases, war and famine. It’s sad to think of a time when population will generally exceed food supply.
However, I am optimistic that we may never reach this point because after realizing that we’ve food shortages, we will abstain from sex or resort to having no families or if we must have we go for small families.
I believe that the Malthusian Theory of population is still relevant in Kenya today. Let me take you through a walk.
In recent times, we have experienced HIV/AIDs epidemic which has wiped out many people not only in Kenya but also around the world. This may be one of the issues that Malthus predicted when he talked about the role played by disease in balancing the rapid population growth. He called it positive checks. HIV/AIDs is not the only disease which is devastating us, currently, we are also reeling from the loss we have incurred from cancer and even malaria!
According to UNAIDs, 25,000 people in Kenya died out of AIDs related illnesses in 2018 and 46,000 people were newly infected with HIV/AIDs during the year under focus. In addition to that, UNAIDs noted that many women with HIV (75%) are undergoing treatment compared to only 59% of adult men with HIV/AIDs receiving treatment.
World Health Organization (WHO) notes that there were 24,400 deaths caused by cancer in Kenya in 2014. The world body further noted that you are more likely to get cancer through smoking tobacco, using solid fuel (firewood), being physically inactive, consuming excess alcohol and being obese. According to KANCO, cancer is now the third leading killer of people in Kenya.
These are just examples to illustrate that Malthusian theory of populations still makes sense hundreds of years since the theory was published.
The other elements of Malthusian theory is war and famine. Famine is defined as “extreme scarcity of food.” Kenya has not reached a level where we can say we are experiencing famine but there have been incidents of hunger in many parts of the country. If serious action is not taken to implements national policies such as the Big Four Agenda on food security, the country can easily slide to famine whose consequences are dire. The politicization of the Big Four Agenda is therefore worrying considering that it can lead to loss of lives. Measures to ensure there is food security should not put in place and everyone should play a role. Otherwise, we will see the negative effects predicted in Malthusian Theory of Population being unleashed on us!
In conclusion, we are consoled by one Danish Economist by the name Boserup who countered Malthusian Theory of Population by saying that “both population and food supply will increase simultaneously. This is because people will innovate new ways (technology, machines, seeds and methods) to meet the increasing food needs.”
Reflecting whether Kenya has adopted advanced technologies to increase food production in Kenya has been reported. This includes: development of mobile apps, use of mobile phones, green house farming and use of fertilizers among other methods.
However, many Kenyans still depend on rain-fed agriculture which is dangerous for all of us. Past attempts to put more land under irrigation have been in vain. The best example was the Kulalu-Galana irrigation project by the national government of Kenya. It failed terribly due to poor planning, politicization and corruption.
Additional Reading: Malthusian Theory of population
References
UNAIDS (2018). Kenya Country Profile. Access here.
